We tested about — trading ideas on — data across thousands of US stocks, with realistic trading costs and independent re-checks. Only three held up. ‘Didn’t work’ means the idea did no better than buying on random days, or it lost money after costs.
Held up (3)
The monthly plan.Half SPY, half the 30 strongest-momentum US stocks, refreshed monthly. In testing it earned about — a year vs — for SPY and beat SPY in — of — years. Going forward, expect about — a year.
SPY and QQQ dips in an uptrend.Buy after a short dip while the long-term trend is up, and sell on the first bounce. It won about — in 10 trades since —, about — per trade.
Chart patterns: support and resistance, moving-average crosses, candlestick patternsNo better than buying on random days.
Smart Money Concepts: order blocks, fair value gaps, change of characterNo better than random. The high win rates you see online come from where the stop and target are placed, not from the pattern.
Day-trading rules: opening-range breakouts, VWAP pullbacks, gap playsLost money after trading costs.
Unusual volume spikesBig-volume days tended to be tops, not starts.
Unusual options activityDidn't help someone buying the stock.
Insider buying and SEC filingsThe price moves before you can buy.
AI reading news and filingsThe AI reads the news correctly, but the price has already moved by the time you can buy.
Buying after big earnings gapsWorked years ago, then faded.
Small-cap momentum and small-cap dipsHit by big overnight collapses.
Stop-losses on momentum stocksCut returns sharply, and overnight gaps jump right past the stop anyway.
Buying before earningsThe gain was mostly just the market going up.
Holding only overnightThe gain is smaller than the trading costs.
Customer and supplier earnings linksPriced in by the next open.
Want the details? The Evidence page has the full research.
For education only, not financial advice. Past results, real or simulated, don't promise future results.
Held up in testing
The monthly plan
Half your money sits in SPY. The other half is split equally across the 30 US stocks with the strongest momentum. Once a month you swap out the stocks that dropped off the list.
SPY · half
30 momentum stocks · half
Growth of $100
Simulated 2015–2026, including trading costs. Not live results.
Who qualifies: US stocks trading at least $100 million a day and priced at least $10. No ETFs or funds.
When: decide after the last close of the month, and trade at the next open.
Size: SPY is half your money; each stock is 1/60 of it. Use Stock Slices for S&P 500 stocks and whole shares for the rest, and skip a stock if one share costs more than its target.
For education only, not financial advice. Past results, real or simulated, don't promise future results.
Held up in testing
The month-end trade
A few days in SPY around month-end, when big funds rebalance.
Four trading days before month-end, compare how SPY has done this month with long-term Treasuries (TLT).
If SPY is 2% or more behind: buy SPY at that day's close and sell at the month's last close.
If SPY is 2% or more ahead: buy SPY at the month's last close and sell at the close of the 3rd trading day of next month.
Otherwise there's no trade that month. You never buy bonds here; they're only the yardstick.
Buy and sell with a market-on-close order: on thinkorswim choose MOC, and enter it before 3:50 pm ET.
Why it works: pension and balanced funds rebalance between stocks and bonds at month-end. When stocks have lagged, they tend to buy stocks into the month's end. When stocks have led, they sell at month-end, and prices tend to recover in the first days of the next month.
It's small, and mainly useful for money sitting in cash.
For education only, not financial advice. Past results, real or simulated, don't promise future results.
Use it in TradingView
The same rules as this app, as TradingView scripts. They’re free to use and checked against our research.
3 steps
1Step 1: Open a daily (1D) chart of SPY on TradingView. For the dip script, QQQ works too.
2Step 2: Open the Pine Editor at the bottom of the screen, delete what's there, paste the script and click 'Add to chart'.
3Step 3: For the dip script, turn on dividend adjustment: click 'ADJ' at the bottom right of the chart. The script's table warns you if it's off.
Reading the table
Dip script
‘BUY at next open’ / ‘SELL at next open’ / ‘In trade’ / ‘Blocked (stop)’ match the statuses here. ‘Blocked’ means paused after a stop.
Month-end script
‘X’ is how far SPY is ahead of (+) or behind (−) long-term Treasuries this month. ‘Leg A’ means SPY was behind: buy before month-end. ‘Leg B armed’ means SPY was ahead: buy at the month’s last close.
Checked against our research: the scripts produce the same trades. TradingView’s Strategy Tester starts with $11,000 and puts it all into each trade, so its totals are simulations, not a guide to your account.
Cash account basics
Four things that keep a cash account out of trouble.
Sales settle the next business day.
You can buy with same-day sale proceeds, but don't sell those new shares until the money settles.
Selling before then is a good-faith violation. Repeated violations restrict your account.
Using the earnings rule? On rebalance morning, don't buy a stock that reports before the next day's open. You'd have to sell it the same day, which is a good-faith violation.